2. Human capital Development and challenges

The Tunisian labour market is characterised by a very low and slightly declining annual rate of the active population: 51.3% in 2019 versus 52.5% in 2015 for the age group 15–64 (Eurostat, 2020, p. 38); for the population aged 15+, the rates were 46.9% in 2019 versus 47.1% in 2015 (INS; see Table 1). At the same time, there is a growing share of people with higher education degrees in the active population, especially females (see Table 2). The employment rate (aged 15+) is low, at 39.7% in 2019 (INS), with women generally having fewer employment opportunities than men (see Figure 1). Public sector jobs are scarce and the private sector does not create sufficient jobs to absorb the growing number of young, educated labour market entrants. Jobless growth resulted in an annual deficit of around 19 000 jobs between 2011 and 2017 (ILO, 2018a). Since 2011, there has always been a pool of around 600 000 jobseekers.

With ongoing deindustrialisation, Tunisia's employment structure has been shifting towards the services sector. In 2019, this sector accounted for the largest share of employment (54%), followed by industry (33%) and agriculture (13%) (ILO estimates). Also, there are huge regional differences. Jobs exist mostly in the capital city Tunis and coastal areas, less so in inland regions.

The MFPE is in charge of strategies and policies for employment. In December 2012, it adopted the National Employment Strategy 2013–2017, which was implemented only to a limited extent. Discussions were relaunched in 2017 and an analytical background study published in 2018 to inform a new employment strategy (ILO, 2018a). In May 2019, the MFPE and relevant departments of other ministries, together with the main employers' union (Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts) and the federation of trade unions (Tunisian General Labour Union), started to draft the new employment strategy for 2020 to 2030 with support from the ILO. It will focus on three main pillars: (i) employment creation, (ii) employability and skills supply, and (iii) labour market governance. At the time of writing this report, the final draft of the strategy was in the process of consultations with the social actors. It remains to be seen how well the two MFPE departments of Employment and VET collaborate and integrate the objectives and measures from the emerging employment strategy with those resulting from the VET strategy.

In March 2021, the Ministry in charge of employment (MJSIP) and the concerned departments in other Ministry, in cooperation with employers and workers representatives and with the support of the ILO, have finalised the drafting of the National Strategy of international employment and of the protection of the rights of labour migrants (Stratégie nationale de l'emploi à l'international et de la protection des droits des travailleurs migrants (SNEI)), which integrates the National Employment Strategy (SNE). It articulates with a dedicated operational plan. The SNEI will also provide for a reference and orientation framework together with other national and policies linked to international employment and labour migrants' rights.

This new prism places the international employment sector not only as a complement to the regulatory system of the national labor market, but it considers it in relation to future developments in the economic dynamics, jobs and training. The SNEI also draws on the opportunities offered by Tunisia's membership in international cooperation frameworks aimed at promoting safe, orderly and regular migration routes and where decent employment, the reduction of inequalities between workers, and fairness in recruitment should be the main targets promoted and favoured by the international community. The objectives of the strategy include (i) the adoption of a global logic of international cooperation in the field of migration, led by a clear and coordinated vision covering all the forms, ways and setors associated to labour migration and respecting the Tunisian regional and international commitments and norms regulating international labour. (ii) translating the regional membership of Tunisia to regional clusters and its orientations, international and economic partnerships (iii) providing the productive system with the national and international skills necessary for the development of the country, while guaranteeing them the conditions for their professional, economic and social development. (iv) the provision of a training system, initial and continuing, adapted to the needs of the national and international labor market, open to the different phases of the migration process and in harmony with international standards. (v) strengthening the securing of the channels of organized, existing and potential labor migration in both directions, and combating irregular migration.

The SNEI is articulated around 5 axes :

Axe 1: An efficient governance of international labour market

Axe 2: An information and monitoring system integrating the evolving requirements of the national and international labor markets, as well as those of international cooperation, allowing optimal management of international employment,

Axe 3: A training system structuring human capital, adapted to the needs of the international labor market and to the different phases of the migration process,

Axe 4: An effective international intermediation and placement system,

Axe 5: A strategy at the service of the country's economic and social development.

With the creation of the National Council for Social Dialogue in November 2018, the tripartite dialogue was institutionalised, for which provisions were made in the Social Pact (Contrat Social) agreed between the state, the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts, Tunisian General Labour Union and the Agriculture and Fisheries Union in 2013. However, social partners do not yet act as equal partners with government. They often only get involved when decisions about labour or VET budgets or policies have already been taken.

The National Agency for Employment and Self-Employment (ANETI – Agence Nationale pour l'Emploi et le Travail Indépendant), as the executive agency of the MFPE, is the body in charge of implementing public employment policies. ANETI's mission is fairly broad, ranging from managing active labour market policies (ALMPs) to supporting self-employment and entrepreneurship. However, despite this plethora of tasks, resources assigned to ANETI are very limited, which hampers its role as a fully functioning public employment service.

Tunisia has a tradition of ALMPs that can be classified into four main categories:

1. training;
2. employment subsidies;
3. support to the transition from school to work and from job to job; and
4. entrepreneurship support.

Within the framework of reforms of active labour market programmes, a new decree was adopted, nr 542 of 28 May 2019, and replaced decree nr 2369 of 16 October 2012. The new decree stipulates and regulates the programmes of the National Employment Funds, its conditions and modalities as follows:

• Three programs intended for all categories of job seekers are made available to companies and associations allowing them to benefit from a number of advantages, namely:
  • CIVP Contract of initiation to professional life;
  • Karama « DIGNITE » contract (see below)
  • Civil service contract;
• Entrepreneurship promotion programme,
• Job seekers accompanying programme « Forsati »,
• Training and retraining programme to respond to the needs of enterprises and to unavailable skills and qualifications.

Between 2012 and 2017, the number of beneficiaries of ANETI programmes increased by a remarkable 44%, reaching 182 000 in 2017. The Forsati programme ended in early 2018 and was then relaunched in 2019, not without debate.[25] See HuffPost article contained in: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---africa/---ro-abidjan/---ilo-algiers/documents/pressrelease/wcms_713349.pdf, page 5.

Despite the lack of a systematic monitoring and evaluation system, it is generally agreed that ALMPs in Tunisia have had some positive impact, especially on young people. ALMPs have provided opportunities for first-time jobseekers and young people with business ideas. Yet, it is also acknowledged that, in view of the huge public investments, outcomes in terms of placements and improved employability of beneficiaries could have been better (ILO, 2018a).

The main shortcomings of ALMPs in Tunisia include both their targeting and their geographical distribution. ALMPs are aimed mainly at higher education graduates, while only a few programmes and services assist low-skilled and disadvantaged individuals. In addition, programmes are more easily accessible in Tunis and the coastal regions. The interior regions are less well covered such that the number of ALMP beneficiaries among the long-term unemployed and low-skilled people remains low. Given that there is no unemployment insurance, this has resulted in a strong imbalance: resources have de facto been distributed unequally between different groups (e.g. women holding secondary or higher education degrees versus women without formal qualifications) and between different regions, which exacerbates existing dichotomies. Furthermore, specific measures to support entrepreneurship and start-ups have proven to be expensive but not very effective. Measures included 3% of young unemployed people, but only 1% managed to breathe life into their project ideas (ETF, 2019a).

As Table 3 shows, gross enrolment ratios[27] Gross enrolment ratios are calculated as the total enrolment at each level of education regardless of age, and are expressed as a percentage of the corresponding official education age. The ratio can exceed 100% due to the inclusion of over-aged and under-aged students, because of early or late school entrance or grade repetition.
are high, with 115.4% attending primary level in 2018, which represents a steady increase from 104.8% in 2008. Overall, 93% were enrolled in secondary education (2016), and 31.7% continued on to tertiary level in 2018 (UIS).

Table 3: Gross enrolment ratios by education level and gender, 2008–2018 (in %)

		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Primary	Total	104.8	105.4	107.2	107.8	109.9	111.4	113.3	114.6	114.9	115.6	115.4
	Female	104.1	105.1	107.0	107.7	110.2	111.3	113.4	114.6	115.1	115.4	114.9
	Male	105.4	105.6	107.4	107.9	109.6	111.5	113.3	114.5	114.8	115.9	115.9
Secondary	Total	92.4	90.6	90.2	91.8	–	90.1	87.7	88.2	92.9	–	–
	Female	96.8	94.9	94.5	95.3	­–	–	–	–	99.3	–	–
	Male	88.3	86.6	86.2	88.6	–	–	–	–	86.9	–	–
Tertiary	Total	33.7	35.0	35.4	35.2	35.9	35.0	35.3	35.2	32.8	32.1	31.7
	Female	40.3	42.2	43.2	43.8	44.0	43.2	44.1	44.1	41.8	41.7	41.2
	Male	27.4	28.0	27.8	26.8	28.0	27.0	26.8	26.6	24.2	23.1	22.8

Source: UIS database.
Note: “–“ denotes missing information

Tunisia has managed to greatly improve its schooling and literacy rates over the years. The illiteracy rate fell to 19.0% in 2015 (down from 31.7% in 1994) (MDICI, 2016). Youth literacy rates (15–24 age group) climbed to 96.8%. Literacy rates for the adult population (25–65 age group) demonstrate a large gender gap of 15% (88.3% of males versus 73.8% of females), but the 15- to 24-year-olds managed to close this gender gap, reducing it to merely 1%.

Furthermore, the overall educational attainment of the population (aged 15+ years) also shows a clear upward trend (Table 4). Although medium-level qualifications, including VET, remained stagnant at 20.5% in 2019 (down from 21.5% in 2010), the higher education segment improved from 12.6% in 2010 to 16.4% in 2019, with a considerable portion of such degrees in the social or religious studies rather than in sought-after technical fields. The share of low-educated individuals decreased slightly to 63.0% in 2019, compared to 66.0% in 2010. Women made bigger gains: while there used to be a 5.5% difference between men and women with a lower educational background in 2010, this had reduced to only 1.4% in 2019. Equally, the share of women with high levels of education in 2019 outweighed men by far, with a further widening of the gap since 2015 (18.1% vs. 14.6%) (INS).

Table 4: Educational attainment of total population by gender (% aged 15), 2010 and 2015–2019

Education level	2010	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total
Low	66.0	64.6	64.9	64.5	64.1	63.0
Medium	21.5	20.7	19.9	19.9	19.6	20.5
High	12.6	14.7	15.1	15.6	16.2	16.4
Males
Low	63.2	62.8	64.0	63.7	63.7	62.3
Medium	23.6	22.4	22.0	22.3	21.9	22.9
High	13.3	14.8	14.0	13.9	14.5	14.6
Females
Low	68.7	66.4	65.9	65.2	64.6	63.7
Medium	19.4	19.0	17.9	17.5	17.5	18.2
High	11.9	14.6	16.2	17.2	17.9	18.1

Source: ETF Database, data received from INS, LFS
Notes: low: ISCED 0–2 (includes no schooling); medium: ISCED 3–4; high: ISCED 5–6 (ISCED 97 classification).

About one-quarter of the population aged 30–34 had successfully completed higher education (24.6% in 2016, up from 19.0% in 2010). Young females with higher education degrees outnumber their male counterparts: 28.6% versus 20.6% in 2016 (INS; see Figure 7).

Figure 7: Higher education attainment (% aged 30–34), 2010–2016

Image

Source: ETF Database, data received from INS, LFS

However, these positive trends stand in sharp contrast to the persistently high rate for early school leavers, i.e. leaving before completing a secondary education degree. Despite major improvements compared to 2010 when the rate totalled 54.9%, early school leaving still affected 37.1% of people aged 18–24 in 2019 (INS). At a rate of 42.6% in 2019 (down from 54.9% in 2010), more young males dropped out of school than young females (rates for females were 31.6% in 2019, down from 47.7% in 2010) (see Figure 5). Dropout rates in Tunisia remain high amid continuous security concerns and a lack of appropriate programmes, facilities, transport, and pedagogical and family support. There is a close link to the NEETs rate, as discussed earlier (see Figure 6).

Another area of concern is the low quality of education in Tunisia, including poor basic skills levels. In 2017, the expected years of schooling amounted to 10.2 years, but the learning-adjusted years of schooling corresponded to only 6.3 years (World Bank, Human Development Index).

As Figure 8 illustrates, the 2015 results from the OECD's PISA showed a sharp decline in reading skills: as many as 71.6% of students aged 15 were low performers in 2015, which compares unfavourably to Tunisia's 50.2% in 2009 and the EU average of 19.7% in 2015. Under-achievement in science increased to 65.9% in 2015 (53.7% in 2009) and in mathematics to 74.8% (73.6% in 2009). Average EU rates in 2015 amounted to 20.6% and 22.2%, respectively.

Figure 8: Underachievers (% aged 15) failing level 2 on PISA scale, 2009, 2012 and 2015

Image

Reasons include the poor conditions in schools, especially in disadvantaged regions, but also curricula and teacher skills (ETF, 2019a). This is serious because poor basic skills prevent young people from further learning and from acquiring higher-level vocational skills. Thus, a declining quality in primary and lower secondary education contributes to higher levels of exclusion from education and the labour market. Low-skilled young people are also more vulnerable to changing economic conditions, as has been seen with the COVID-19 crisis.

Back in 2013, the MFPE carried out a thorough self-assessment to identify the weaknesses of the VET system. The weaknesses included the lack of harmonisation in terms of system management, the absence of a clear direction for reform, and the overall weak capacity of the VET system to adapt to the needs of the economy, individuals and society. Missing instruments to identify skills and training needs and translate them into relevant VET offers were acknowledged as key shortcomings.

Recognising these challenges, the MFPE launched an ambitious VET reform strategy for the period 2014–2018, now extended to 2020[28] The VET reform strategy period 2014–2018 was re-labelled 2016–2020 to coincide with the implementation period of the National Development Strategy 2016–2020.
(MFPE, 2013). It built on the Social Pact and the lessons learned from the earlier MANFORME[29] A synthesis of the three phases of the MANFORME project is provided here: http://adapt.it/adapt-indice-a-z/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/difid-wb_knowledge_skills_Tunisia_2003.pdf
and PEFESE[30] An EU Budget Support programme, which supported education.
programmes, (co-)funded by the EU.

The VET reform strategy aims to achieve the following main objectives:

• increase the attractiveness of VET;
• support the professional development of trainers;
• involve regional stakeholders;
• improve data collection and analysis, and enhance the monitoring and evaluation function; and
• develop entrepreneurial mind-sets across the VET system.

The strategy clusters reform measures under 14 different VET reform projects, each with their specific objectives, action plans, and the human and financial resources required. The estimated total costs of the 14 projects amounted to TND 428 million (ca. EUR 132 million), including TND 369 million (ca. EUR 114 million) alone for the restructuring and modernisation of training centres (project 8).

The Tunisian authorities have taken ownership of VET reform, and social partners provide some support. However, human and material resources are limited and ministers have changed frequently, which more often than not has led to an introduction of new policy priorities. This in turn has diverted some resources from the implementation of the 14 VET projects, as well as creating some fatigue among administrative staff and reform actors. Thus, VET reform, according to its original goals, has been advancing only at a slow pace. Some of the many axes of reform have practically stalled such that the VET system is not currently functioning effectively.

Donors provide major resources and technical assistance to design concepts and methodologies and implement VET reform in restricted areas or pilot institutions. They contribute to the capacity-building of policy-makers and social partners and most of the projects to date, but this is not enough to make the system work differently. National capacity is limited, and at times donors act in an uncoordinated manner.

Areas where progress was achieved include the formalisation of the tripartite social dialogue for VET and employment, the existence of a training levy system (although its functioning requires improvement), and the regulation of WBL.

In line with the constitution adopted in 2014, VET functions are to be decentralised to regional and local levels. This is an innovative approach that could help improve both the quality and relevance of VET supply at local level and the employability of young people. Already in its 2016–2017 edition of the Torino Process, the ETF (2017) saw the urgent need for a new VET governance model as part of overall VET system reforms, which would involve the social partners and regional and local authorities to a much greater degree. Government decree no. 2019-802 adopted on 15 August 2019 assigns, in principle, a somewhat higher autonomy to VET centres. It encourages VET centres to set up so-called 'partnership committees'. However, autonomy may not go far enough and implementation modalities are still to be worked out. We will discuss further the issue of decentralisation in Section 3.1.